This month’s commentary is a little technical. Here’s your updated stats machine… Click Here. Every December we have a look at the latest year’s trends and make a qualified prediction for the coming year based on a historical statistical Real Estate analysis only. What this means is that history has shown that you can predict what is going to happen in the next 12 months at least based on 5 statistics. Those stats are, sales activity, inventory, absorption, days on market to sell and prices. We have learned from historical data that 3 of these statistics, inventory, absorption and days on market to sell, begin to change about 6 months to a year before the other 2. The 2 that are most important to us and our customers are sales activity and prices which are the 2 that remain. Without getting too technical if you graph the latest year’s changes in the first 3 statistics and find a similar time in history where these graphs exist then it stands to reason that the following 12 months will be similar. This is a system that we tested and confirmed 12 years ago with 8 centers across Canada. It has also shown to predict with an extremely high level of accuracy for all of those years. It is based on the assumption that the Real Estate market changes very slowly compared to the stock market. To reduce this to a simple understanding that is relevant to this year; we have had rising absorption and decreasing inventory and days on market to sell for all of this year in all 3 zones. This tells us that 2017 will be as active or more active than 2016. There are no signs anywhere in the statistics that this is letting up. However, there are changes to mortgage qualifications that have not taken effect yet and the results of the downturn in Vancouver that have not been fully felt yet. We do not know what effect these changes will have over the next 12 months. However, the 3 main forces that are driving our market; migration from Alberta due to lower oil prices and reduced economic factors, migration from the lower mainland which is up dramatically and increased investment from the USA because of the difference in the dollar are not going away anytime soon. Happy New Year to All!
The Concious Investor
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